Pakistan is grappling with a severe water crisis, particularly in Punjab province, as water levels in the Indus River system have dropped significantly. The crisis comes at a critical time, coinciding with the Kharif sowing season and an ongoing heatwave. According to the Indus River System Authority (IRSA), water availability as of June 2 has decreased by over 10% compared to the same time last year, with key reservoirs like Tarbela and Mangla dams nearing critical levels. The delayed arrival of the Southwest Monsoon, expected only by the end of June, is compounding irrigation challenges for farmers already under stress.

The situation has worsened following a sudden reduction in the Chenab River’s inflow, attributed to India’s suspension of water sharing under the Indus Waters Treaty. Islamabad claims this move follows the April 22 terror attack in Pahalgam, which India linked to cross-border militancy. The Indus Waters Treaty, signed in 1960, allocates 80% of water from the Indus system to Pakistan, while India retains 20%. With the treaty now in abeyance, India has also stopped sharing vital flood data, raising fears of unanticipated monsoon flooding in low-lying Pakistani regions.

The Pakistani government had already forecast a 21% water shortage this summer and urged prudent reservoir management. Additionally, a staggering 50% shortfall in live storage at Tarbela and Mangla threatens both irrigation and hydropower generation in Punjab and Sindh. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif recently voiced his concerns at a global glacier preservation summit in Tajikistan, calling for international attention to India’s actions. With farmers in Punjab staring at dry fields and soaring temperatures, the water crisis risks becoming a humanitarian and agricultural emergency.