Highlights: Will AI Concerns Weigh on Fractal Analytics IPO on Listing Day? GMP Collapse Signals Caution

India’s much-anticipated Fractal Analytics IPO billed as one of the country’s first pure-play artificial intelligence stock market debuts is scheduled to list on February 16, 2026, and market watchers are closely watching how AI-related concerns and investor sentiment could influence its performance on listing day.

Subscription and Allotment Overview

The IPO, which opened on February 9 and closed on February 11, secured a 2.66-times overall subscription, led by strong institutional (QIB) participation in the final days. Retail and non-institutional investors lagged behind, pointing to selective interest.

Allotment was processed by February 12, and shares were credited to demat accounts on February 13, paving the way for the official listing next week.

Grey Market Premium (GMP) Tells a Story

One key sentiment indicator the grey market premium (GMP) has collapsed after earlier high expectations, signaling more cautious expectations for listing gains. Early in the pre-IPO period, unofficial GMP readings had suggested potentially double-digit gains, but these softened as subscription data flowed in.

By the close of bidding, GMP levels were minimal or nearly flat, implying that investors may not be banking on a big pop when the shares debut. A flat or low GMP is often interpreted as muted investor enthusiasm rather than outright negative sentiment.

AI Buzz vs. Valuation Concerns

Fractal’s positioning as an AI-focused company initially generated buzz, as artificial intelligence remains one of the most sought-after investment themes. However, brokers and analysts have highlighted valuation concerns and operational risks that could temper optimism. Some concerns include high price-to-earnings multiples and the evolving nature of AI technology adoption, which may affect long-term earnings projections.

These dynamics suggest that while AI remains a compelling narrative, short-term valuations and profitability metrics weigh heavily on investor decision-making.

What Listing Day Could Look Like

Given the muted GMP and cautious subscription patterns particularly among retail investors initial trading may be tepid rather than sharply upward, even though institutional demand helped push the IPO to full subscription.

However, full allotment and subscription do provide a foundation for participation, and performance on listing day will likely hinge on broader market sentiment, sector cues (especially in tech and AI), and whether investors prioritise growth potential over valuation risks.

The Bottom Line

Fractal Analytics’ IPO debut is a landmark event for India’s AI theme in capital markets. Yet, collapsing GMP readings and valuation sensitivities suggest that AI hype alone may not guarantee a big listing pop. Instead, early trading could reflect a balanced view of growth potential and fundamental caution — underscoring investor preference for solid financial footing alongside promising technology narratives.