The Indian stock markets began September 30, 2025 with mild optimism, as both major indices opened in the green. The Nifty50 rose to around 24,659.60 (up ~25 points, or +0.10 %), while the BSE Sensex climbed approximately 88 points to reach 80,452.63. 

This positive start comes after a bearish trend of seven consecutive sessions. Many analysts see today’s gains as a tentative rebound, driven by selective strength in banking and metal stocks. In particular, the public sector bank index outperformed, lifted by renewed expectations that the RBI may ease lending norms and enhance credit flows. 

Still, the overall caution is tangible. Foreign institutional investors have shown consistent outflows this month, which continues to weigh on sentiment. Added to this, global uncertainties especially around changes in U.S. fiscal policy, trade tensions, and the looming possibility of a government shutdown are placing a veil of restraint over aggressive market bets. 

Domestic cues matter too. The Reserve Bank of India’s upcoming policy decisions loom large in investor minds. Should the RBI ease rates or tweak capital norms, liquidity-sensitive sectors may see further upside. Meanwhile, export-oriented firms are watching currency volatility and global demand trends closely.

In the mid and small cap space, incremental gains were visible but measured many participants remain on the sidelines, awaiting firmer cues. Ultimately, today’s session may be a delicate balance between cautious optimism and strategic hedging. If supportive RBI signals arrive, the bulls may get more conviction; if global pressure intensifies, even modest gains could erode. For investors: stay selective. Focus on quality stocks in sectors with favourable fundamentals. Keep an eye on foreign flows and policy announcements. Amid uncertainty, patience and discipline may yield stronger gains than chasing momentum.