Exit poll projections for the five state assembly elections – Telangana, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, and Mizoram – came in on Thursday, suggesting a difficult contest between the Congress and the BJP in at least three of these states. The Assembly election results in 2023 will be critical because this is the semi-final before the general elections in 2024. Exit poll forecasts, on the other hand, are frequently incorrect.
Here are 10 key conclusions from 5 state exit polls:
1.Telangana
If exit poll projections are correct, Telangana might be in for a major surprise. According to forecasts, the Congress may take power, pushing the current Bharat Rashtra Samithi to second place and the BJP to a distant third. This will be the first time this has happened, since K Chandrashekar Rao has been the state’s chief minister since the state’s creation in 2014. This is also the first time that KCR’s party, which was founded in 2001 with the goal of establishing a separate state, has gone nationwide and changed its name to Bharat Rashtra Samithi.
2. According to India TV-CNX exit polls, the Congress may win 63-79 seats in the 119-member legislature, while the BRS may win 31-47 seats. According to Jan ki Baat, the Congress will win 48-64 seats, the BRS 40-55, and the BJP 7-13. In a neck-and-neck race, TV9 Bharatvarsh-Polstrat exit polls forecast 49-59 seats for the Congress and 48-58 seats for the BRS. Republic TV-Matrize predicts a close race between the Congress (58-68 seats) and the BRS (46-56 seats). My Axis is yet to share Telangana data in India Today.
3.Madhya Pradesh
According to highest exit poll forecasts, Madhya Pradesh favors the BJP. The Congress has disputed the forecasts, with Kamal Nath claiming that the country is led by vision rather by television. Congress leader Digvijaya Singh cited Axis My India’s exit poll before 2021 West Bengal assembly election which was wrong in projecting a greater number of seats to the BJP, and wrote: “Would Psephologists please help us to give correct figures?”
4. According to India Today-Axis My India prediction, the BJP will retain power in Madhya Pradesh with 140-162 seats out of 230. Congress is likely to get 60-90 seats. India TV-CNX exit poll predicted 140-159 seats for the BJP and 70-89 seats for the Congress. The Times Now-ETG gave BJP 105-117 seats, Congress 109-125 seats. Republic TV projected 118-130 seats to BJP, 97-107 to Congress.
5. Rajasthan
According to pollsters, Rajasthan will be a tight struggle between the BJP and the Congress, and in such a situation, minor parties and independent candidates may play an important role in forming the future administration.
6. India Today-My Axis views Rajasthan as a close race between the BJP and the Congress, with the BJP holding 80-100 seats and the Congress holding 86-106 out of 199. According to an India TV-CNX poll, the Congress would win 94-104 seats, while the BJP will win 80-90. A Times Now-ETG survey indicated that the Congress will win 56-72 seats and the BJP would win 108-128, showing a significant disparity. The BJP received 100-122 seats in the Jan Ki Baat vote, while the Congress received 62-85 seats.
7. Chhattisgarh
The Congress is expected to keep Chhattisgarh, but the BJP will be a close second. Incumbent chief minister Bhupesh Baghel said the numbers will only increase for the Congress on the counting day, 57 will become 75.
8. Today in India-Axis My India poll indicated that the Congress will win 40-50 seats out of 90, while the BJP would win 36-46 seats. ABP C-Voter predicted the Congress will win 41-53 seats and the BJP would win 36-48. The Republic TV exit poll gave the Congress 44-52 seats and the BJP 34-42 seats; the India TV-CNX poll projected the Congress would win 46-56 seats and the BJP would win 30-40 seats.
9. Mizoram
The Zoram People’s Movement (ZPM) is set to overthrow the Mizo National Front in Mizoram. Both the Congress and the BJP are a distant third and fourth in the polls.
10. As per India Today-Axis My India election predictions ZPM is likely to win 28-35 seats, while MNF is expected to win 3-7 seats – out of 40. According to Times Now-ETG, it will be a close contest with ZPM at 10-14 seats, MNF 14-18 seats. Jan Ki Baat poll gave 10-14 seats to MNF, 15-25 seats to ZPM. India TV-CNX poll predicted 14-18 seats for MNF and 12-16 seats for ZPM.
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Source: HT
