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IMF Ups India’s GDP Growth Forecast to 6.1% for Fiscal Year 2023-24

The gross domestic product (GDP) growth prediction for India by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has been increased to 6.1% for the current fiscal year.

“Growth in India is projected at 6.1% in 2023 (fiscal year 2023-24), a 0.2 percentage point upward revision compared with the April projection, reflecting momentum from stronger-than-expected growth in the fourth quarter of 2022 as a result of stronger domestic investment,” the IMF stated in the World Economic Outlook Update, which was published on Tuesday. Its 6.3% estimate of GDP growth for FY25 stays the same.

India’s GDP was projected to grow by 5.9% in the current fiscal year by the IMF, according to the World Economic Outlook, which was published in April.

The upward revision follows the economy’s 7.2% faster-than-expected growth in FY23. The IMF’s updated prognosis for FY24 is still less optimistic than those of other agencies. While the Asian Development Bank has maintained its projection of 6.4% GDP growth for the fiscal year, the Reserve Bank of India has forecasted GDP growth of 6.5% for the current fiscal year.

With China’s neighbor expected to develop at a rate of 5.2% in 2023 and 4.5% in 2024, India continues to hold the title of having the fastest-growing economy.

The IMF has also increased its forecast for global economic output from 2.8% to 3% in 2023 in the Update to the World Economic Outlook. The drop in GDP from 2022 to 2023 is still being driven by advanced economies, with weaker manufacturing and atypical factors countering stronger service activity.

“On an annual average basis, it is predicted that global growth will slow from 3.5% in 2022 to 3% in both 2023 and 2024. Growth has been upgraded for 2023 by 0.2 percentage points compared to predictions in the April 2023 WEO, with no change for 2024, it stated.

It went on to state that, on an annual basis, global growth peaked in the fourth quarter of 2022 and that, in certain large economies, it is not anticipated to bottom out until the second half of 2023. “The rise in central bank policy rates to fight inflation continues to weigh on economic activity,” the statement read.

From 8.7% in 2022, the global headline inflation rate is predicted to drop to 6.8% in 2023 and then further to 5.2% in 2024.

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